An Open Letter to Americans


leatherneck2
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Joined: Sep 2007
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14 September, 2001 Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written an "open letter to Americans." Please share it if you feel so moved. Tony Kern Dear friends and fellow Americans: Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the years following WW II. These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is to the physical as three is to one." Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was five times more important in battle than physical strength. Our enemies are willing - better said anxious -- to give their lives for their cause. How committed are we America? And for how long? In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A. These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked out. For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military leaders. Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight. We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but! also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least read military theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order. Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a few more hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail. Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain. I find it interesting, and somewhat sad, that this assessment has proven to be so prescient.    
Average: 4 (1 vote)

warhater
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Joined: Jul 2006
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The article printed on the 14 of September 2001 is as fallacious as it is felicitous. It makes the attack on WTC some kind of worldwide conspiracy which is exactly the drivel coming out of the Whitehouse. Tony Kern’s fecundate writings would make one weep at his words. He is the perfect propagandist, and after all if you’re the government you hire people that are qualified to author book’s, which most of them do along with teaching classes of likeminded (molded) lost scholars: lost in the reality of fear mongering for wealth and fame.    You are hitching your kite to a figment of your mind, molded in bull dooky from the State Dept.    They walk through the hallways of academia as honorable men when indeed they are no better than the “enemy” that is trying to destroy us. Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran; and when that is done where too next?  http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/war/ Be sure to scroll down the page.    These people are the greatest minds in the world and if one did not study US history they might be carried away with the wonder of it all as you seem to be.     Indeed there is something to be said about these folks that make a living through the mongering of conflict with the written word; their reality is real. Real in the sense that war is a reality and only through fear of some outside force rallying the populace can the government (any government) require its citizens to bring forth their young to the slaughter of war.    Wars are inevitable as long as there remains resources to fight over in an ever growing population of potential consumers; that’s how money is made; resources. Those resources come from the ground i.e. land.    My question would be why do we go to war over land rather than buy it? The answer is the profits made by the Defense Industry i.e. the Arms Industry such as Boeing, Lockheed, General Electric and so forth.   Our children have been going to the battlefield long enough. This insanity of death for profit has to have reached its wretched end. It must come soon the weapons are becoming too awesome to play with.                                                                                                       
warhater
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The penalty for editing is a tail longer than a kite. I’ve learned my lesson.
shays
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Posts: 968
I have a different take on this open letter than does warhater.  With but one minor flaw in its central organizing thesis, I think it resonates right up to the end.  But at the end, because it cannot predict outcomes, those outcomes make it nothing more than a shout in the dark. The central flaw is quite simple (as most are), and it is this:  Osama bin Laden is not the omnipresent adversary, nor is al-Qaeda.  Make no mistake, Osama bin Laden is everything that Mr. Kern describes him as being, and his organization is as ruthless and anti-American as he says.  Al-Qaeda is an organization willing to bring the battle to American soil.  But it is the only one.  The worldwide "war" against jihad and radical Islam is a "war" against widely disparate, mostly nationalistic and localized groups willing to utilize terror and fear in their arsenal of hatred and mistrust.  They may be loosely affiliated with al-Qaeda, but that affiliation brooks for little in terms of concrete support or assistance.  In point of fact, Islamic terrorists in the Philippines would undoubtedly resist any effort by Osama bin-Laden or his representative  (or al-Qaeda) to impose a tactical decision or to take over control of the local movement.  In short, there are one hundred heads and two hundred hands, but they all march to different drummers and not all of them -- in fact only one of them -- is interested in (or capable of) operations on US soil.  A wise leader would recognize and exploit these differences to divide and conquer our enemies, rather than lump them all together and give them equal time. Secondly, Kern encourages us to support our President and the military.  I think the level of support in 2001 and most of 2002, as the President sought and then received permission to track down and capture Osama bin Laden (and then his Taliban protectors), was close to 90%.  I counted myself in that number.  But as 2002 wore on us, and we heard more and more about the Iraq distraction ... as the palpably thin arguments became more heated and the patently absurd imminent threats to our security became more shrill ... the number began to shift.  It has been shifting ever since, as people more and more learn how the President squandered an opportunity to actually confront al-Qaeda head on by misleading us and manipulating our fears to take us down a totally unnecessary, costly, and bankrupted path. No one spits on American troops (and the myth that they did during the Vietnam debacle is also highly exaggerated).  But the President has lost all credibility.
BBrentwood
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Joined: Jan 2008
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Saudi funded groups have built over 300 new madrasas style schools and are using the vitriolic hate filled curriculums that create suicide bombers.   Intelligence agents are tracking the schools very carefully.  In the curriculum students are taught that it is ok to kill Jews and infidels.   The curriculum also teaches that dogs and swine are dirty animals just like the Jews.   The students are taught that women are chattel like cattle or sheep and have no rights,   they must not be allowed to leave the house without a male relative in tow, they must obey their husband since Allah has only given power to men. A terrorist cell was broken up just outside of Portland.....what say you Shays.....  Whenever I see your pic when posting it reminds me of the brainwashed homegrown....."Marin Taliban guy, all you need is the turban.  Have a great day.       "Oh what a tangled web they weave, when they set out to deceive.
shays
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Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 968
Boy, you sure are a nasty little sleazeball, filled with snide innuendos and horribly inaccurate information.  My self-portrait resembles John Walker Lindh about as much as George W. Bush resembles Alfred E. Neuman.  Just what are you trying to say, you spineless weasel? Are you suggesting that I am a supporter of terrorists because I live outside of Portland?  By the same reasoning, you must be a supporter of gay marriage because you live in the Bay Area.  What a noxious pile of drivel.   And what in the world does the Saudi funding of madrasahs have to do with anything?  A madrasah is a school.  Period.  It is no more different or suspicious than any school that the Reverend Hagee's church might start (for example), or a Catholic school, or a school built by the US Department of Education.   And finally, since George W. Bush is an adopted Saudi, are you implying what many of us already know ... that the best interests of the Resident Leader do not necessarily coincide with the best interests of the American people?  What in the world do the Saudis have to do with this discussion -- unless, like me, you agree that the dictatorship there is almost as evil as that practiced by Saddam Hussein, and that we are very selective about the types of governments we support, or that the bulk of the money to finance 9/11 came through Saudi sources and the father of the President of the US was having breakfast with Osama bin Laden's brother on the morning of 9/11 Etc.
warhater
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Joined: Jul 2006
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Shifting sand of reasons for war: Saddam had a hand in 911 because an agent of al Qaeda was spotted in Baghdad. Saddam has weapons of mass destruction and we know this because of a guy named Curveball and look at this vile of white powder of military grade anthrax. Ok so none of the aforementioned reasons are valid but we should invade Iraq because Saddam is a bad man and in 1990 he gassed his own people and beside all of this we have to go into Iraq to protect our freedoms so that guys like warhater can write their leftwing tree hugging garbage. The American public eats crap by the crockload and people like Kern are here to spoon feed it to us. I thank Leatherneck for sharing his misguided thoughts as articulated by Kern but will have to pass on eating it.
leatherneck2
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Joined: Sep 2007
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Warhater, Based on your latest post, I do not believe that you have read Lt Col Kern's letter. It does not address Iraq, or any other specific theater. It does, however, directly address the willingness and ability of the American public to commit to a course of action and follow through on it to a conclusion. Lt Col Kern correctly noted that the ability of the American military to achieve victory hinges directly upon the willingness of the American public to support the action. History has demonstrated that the American public is willing to engage in total war so long as they do not need to understand what that means. History has likewise demonstrated that the American people are not willing to engage in a limited war because we are not interested in limited objectives. I submit the following as examples: Korea, Vietnam, Somalia, and Haiti. This creates an interesting juxtaposition in that there was near unanimous agreement that we needed to do much more than throw a few missiles at Al Qaeda, but now so many folks are second guessing the folks that are on the ground prosecuting the war around the world and in fact we are now looking to figure out why "they" hate us. Here is a clue: In the wahabiist world there is no differentiation between the theological and secular. All is the will of Allah except that which is the work of Satan.  If we are successful, that is because either we are willed so by Allah or because we serve Satan. If the first is true, then their very existance is invalid - as they are following the recitations of the Prophet Mohammed which cannot be the case, therefore we MUST be evil and need to be destroyed. There is really no middle ground and increasing understanding between us will accomplish nothing. Please note that I am speaking very specifically about the radical Islamists and not about secular Muslims. I have some first hand experience in this arena from which I am speaking, as opposed to opinion supported by reading blogs and OP-EDs that reinforce my opinion. I did not always feel this way and moved to this point of view over the course of several years of dealing with both secular Muslims and radical Islamists. Make no mistake, we are in a fight fro our very survival and only the resolution of the American people will determine victory or defeat.  
shays
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Joined: Jul 2005
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Your response is absolutely correct, with but one small caveat.  Your argument is based upon a false assumption.  To wit ... the American people have demonstrated a reasonable willingness to "commit to a course of action and follow through on it to a conclusion" when the action was clearly and correctly identified and the conclusion matched the desired outcome.  Non-militaristic people everywhere in the world and at almost all times in world history share a simple and basic assumption ... wars are evil necessities, to be avoided at all costs and to be ended as soon as possible ... but if the purpose is clear and the outcome equally clear, then they will endure it.  The American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II are clear examples of this resolve and determination. All other wars that you cited (including the current "confrontation" ... it doesn't even really qualify as a "war") failed to meet those simple criteria.  It is always easy to stir people up and get them excited when they have been wronged or aggrieved.  Add a little fear or hatred into the mix, and would be conquerors always find it easy to blow some trumpets, wave some flags, say a few inspiring words and then send the young off to do their dirty work for them (whatever may actually motivate it). We had the potential for a "real" war this time around, and you identified it correctly when you said people wanted to do more than lob a few missiles at al-Qaeda.  Consent with the invasion of Afghanistan was not unanimous, but it was darn close.  Had we stuck to that clear, purposeful objective and used our forces to track down and bring Osama bin Laden and the al-Qaeda leadership to justice, then the conclusion would also have been satisfactory and complete.  If that meant taking on the Taliban, and possibly elements of Pakistani warlordism, so be it.  In all likelihood, that episode would be over, a dangerous (though small) enemy would have been dealt with, a lesson would have been taught to would-be emulators, and OUR role would still be understood as measured, precise, swift, and just. Instead, we have been dragged into an unnecessary and irrelevant war that had absolutely nothing to do with al-Qaeda, an attack on America, or even radical Islamic terrorism.  To the best of my knowledge ... though there are always exceptions, of course ... this is a conflict and military occupation of a sovereign state that has not resulted in a loss of respect for American military personnel.  There are those on this board who feel that criticism of our political leaders who created this mess for their own personal ends and agenda is equitable to criticizing and not supporting the troops -- but this is not true.  In fact, critics of the war are in the forefront of leading efforts to provide the support soldiers need that this government of ours will not provide them on its own (better equipment, health care and psychological support upon return, efforts to modify rotations and time off, better benefits for time of service, etc. etc.). My criticism of Mr. Kern's letter is not in the effort it made to unite us in the upcoming struggle, but in the fact that it overlooked the simple fact that ambitious and narrow-sighted politicians would use the attack on America to achieve personal goals, and that it would be our armed forces that would be forced to pay the price for their mistakes. In summary, I agree with your perspective on war but think that this particular "war" was sold to us as a bill of goods.  Radical Islamists are everything you describe them to be and they do, indeed, serve as a formidable opponent that will not go away.  But they are not as pervasive and universal, and certainly not as united, as you perceive them to be.  Like people everywhere, they are divided by their own internal squabbles, interests, goals and ambitions.  Osama bin Laden has carved a rather unique swath through that world and united otherwise disparate forces towards a common, anti-American goal.  His forces, his resources, and his skills are most definitely something which we must confront and defeat.  We must defeat them on the battlefield (though one of the true strengths he possesses is the lack of a uniform military force that will stand on a battlefield and fight), we must hunt them out where they hide and fester, and we must take away the basis of their appeal.  All of the other forces that align themselves with al-Qaeda are independent, unique and like little beds of hornets cut off from the main nest.  They generally are more nationalistic, often times have competing interests with the al-Qaeda leadership, and have little interest or resources to launch an attack against the US.   We cannot lose sight of these facts in our struggle with radical Islam.  Misjudging the nature of our enemy by overestimating their abilities or inclinations is almost as bad as underestimating what they are capable of doing.  This is the type of "war" in which inadvertently dropped bombs and missiles do more than add to the casualty count ... they serve to increase the resistance and turn would-be-allies (or at least those who wish to remain outside the fray) into enemies.
warhater
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Of course Kern’s did not address Iraq because it wasn’t on the radar at the time the article was written. I may have mentioned Iraq because his message is cogent to the mindset of the American people necessary to allow our leaders to take us into Iraq. I agree with you of course that the American public do not need to know what total war means nor do they seem to care and people like Kern’s would encourage the American people to walk through the gates of hell if our leaders decide its necessary. Limited victory is not a war that the American military would engage but I have to ask what total victory would look like after a total war, in this case a war on terrorism.   A war on isms are the motives given by people such as Kerns; fascism, communism, terrorism. Have any of our wars on isms ended in total victory, the answer is no all of these isms still exist and I might add they are alive a well thank you. Fifty two thousand Americans died in Vietnam and still there was no victory. The idea of total victory is as fallacious and illusive as the idea of total war is unimaginable. We are losing the war in Iraq in spite of all the jawboning by people such as Kern’s and the belief that the military will win in the end by people such as yourself.   We seem to forget that with continued provocations engendered by US invasions we ourselves fuel the fires of hatred that cause terrorism to thrive among those whose family members have been killed in the fog of war. The idea that we can put out the fires of hatred due to the US’s invasive foreign policy is as insane as our idea that diplomacy is a quaint tool used by cowards that wish to avoid a showdown.   These Middle Eastern men will fight to and through the gates of hell and high water to remove the Americans just as the Vietnamese did. Total victory is a figment of your imagination; it cannot be achieved, at least not in Iraq or Iran.
leatherneck2
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Joined: Sep 2007
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Please go back and read, again, what I wrote. You have missed the important points and wandered off into the weeds on all the others. Let me give you the Cliff's Notes version: Lt Col Kern (he earned the title with over 20 years of service to the US, so I will use it out of respect) made the case that the American people will determine if the US will be victorious or not. The military can continue the fight successfully as long as it takes, but only with the American people supporting the effort. The US has a very poor record with limited warfare, which we have only engaged in in the last 60 years. The American public, who called for blood in 2001, now are questioning the actions of those on the ground doing what they were lawfully ordered to do (As Lt Col Kern suggested might happen if the public was not careful). The hatred that the Wahabiist/Radical Islamist feels for the US is in no way related to anything that the west has done. It is based in the fundamental nature of the Wahabiist/Radical Islamic movement(s) Now to address a few points in your latest missive: The principle reason for our poor record in limited war is that the American people do not support limited objectives. Note how critical the public is of President Bush for not invading Iraq in '92, when our limited objective was removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait (per the UN resolution). We have not engaged in total war since WWII. Prior to that, when the US went to war, the entire country mobilized for war and the objective was destruction of the enemy. In limited war the objectives are necessarily vague and constrained, such as "defeating terrorism" or "deterring communist aggression". The Radical Islamists are an adaptive and innovative enemy who engage in asymmetrical warfare. Total war in this case is a clear path to defeat, as total war rests on defeating an enemy state as opposed to a belief or movement. We are adapting our tactics to their actions as fast as they are adapting their action. I cannot say with certainty that we are winning, but I can certainly say that is is not clear that we are losing as the democratic institutions are taking hold, moderates in Iraq are gaining the trust and legitimacy that we want them to, commerce, education, and local self governance are increasing consistently, Al Qaeda in Iraq has ceased to be a significant entity, and finally Al Qaeda has shifted support to the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. If the cause of the hatred is, as you insist, US invasionist policies, then why does the hatred go back centuries before the US existed? I really would like an answer to this question. Also, please note that Radical Islamists are attacking the Russians in Chechnya and have been doing if for quite some time. Abu Sayef and the Moro National Liberation Front in the Philippines grew from a long line of Islamic separatist violence dating to before Spanish colonial period. Would you care to comment on that as well? Albanian Islamists had fomented religious and ethnic violence in Kosovo in the late 14th century and have continued the Jihad to the current time. The UCK (Ushtria Çlirimtare e Kosovës or Kosovo Liberation Army) has, as a point of their manifesto, the goal of uniting the Muslim populations in Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania and to form a new Islamic Republic in the region. They have been heavily financed by Al Qaeda, European Islamic Charities, and the Revolutionary Council of Islamic Revolution of Iran. Diplomacy cannot work against an enemy that does not believe in diplomatic solutions. The goal of diplomacy is, and always has been, to find a mutually acceptable solution and frequently results in a compromise solution to the problem at hand. The Wahabiists/Radical Islamists will use diplomacy only to buy time to position themselves for the next assault. They are not interested in compromising because they see no win in a compromise solution, only a loss. They are willing to allow us the feel safe, as that is when we have historically let our guard down and made their attacks easier. In the current fight, we cannot win unless we are willing to annihilate every last Wahabiist/Radical Islamist, which I do not believe we are willing to do. But we cannot afford to lose, as that would mean the destruction of the religious and political freedoms characterize the western world. What we can do is continue the fight, protect democratic movements, and support legitimate governance in every hostile theater until they get tired and give up or just run out of support. You asked for my vision, this is my sad prognostication, we will likely be fighting this enemy for the next hundred years or more and for my great grandchildren's sake, I hope that we never give up.
warhater
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Joined: Jul 2006
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Thanks for zeroing in on your points of interest in the Kerns letter. Your sad conclusion that we will be fighting Islamic fundamentalism for the next hundred years hit my urgent response chord to dialog with that subject first. First of all we have been fighting Islamic fundamentalism since the day of Richard the Lionheart who was as grisly as any military man could be.   He had the same strategy of winning as you purport i.e. find them, fight them and kill’um all. It is estimated that since the US invasion of Iraq there have been no less than three quarter of a million Iraqis killed either as combatants or as ‘collateral damage’. I’ll use that word for the deaths of the innocent Iraqis just to be nice. Having said that I have to ask the question: Did we manage to stomp out communism simply by defunding the Soviet Union? Have we stomped out the ideology of fascism by defeating the Nazis? Where is the logic concerning Islam that somehow we can stomp out Islamic fundamentalist haters of the Western World? This is a serious question that for the life of me you will have to address because until there is something more than just creating the chaos of war to win a war there is really no direction it will go since direction does not exist in chaos. In other words no one has come up with a G-D reason for why we are in Iraq or a competent logical plan to somehow win hearts and minds because brother peace ain’t gonna happen until we do, and because of our refusal to leave that fair country there will never ever be a possibility for peace. You can’t get a guy to make peace with you if all you’re doing is punching his nose and gouging his eyes while he’s doing the same to you; keeping in mind that we are in his backyard.   I think I’ll end here since I seem to be ranting.
warhater
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Joined: Jul 2006
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One more thing and I send it separately because I have learned the penalty of editing within this forum.   According to what I listened to on the BBC there are twenty million Iraqis displaced into other countries that surround it as well as twenty million that are displaced within Iraq. These are people that were living a tolerable life under US sanctions and Saddam’s rule that have had to move from their homes because the United Snakes of America ( I speak of Bush, Cheney and of course the hidden hands behind the curtain) decided to invade their homeland.   Perhaps we are in parallel worlds of morality and will never agree but I know this: London was bombed as well as Madrid and the answer was; find the culprits through law enforcement and spare the people that reside in the culprit’s homeland the horrors of war. If we really wanted to find the planners of 911 the answer would have been a clandestine capture of the culprits and not as you say Total War.   Again to use an analogy; if a hornet stings you is it a sane response to attack the nest and piss off a lot of hornets? No, you kill the offender. Why are we in Iraq and not in the country that is hosting Osama bin Laden i.e. Pakistan, doing a little regime change there to bring sweet vengeance for their complicity of 911 assuming that 911 and the prevention of more 911’s is what it’s all about.
leatherneck2
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Joined: Sep 2007
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I would like to know where the BBC got those numbers, particularly in light of the fact that the population in Iraq was approximately 24,000,000 when we invaded and is estimated at 28,000,000 now (Yes that is an increase of 4,000,000 over 5 years or an average of a little over 3% increase per year). You cite the BBC as saying that 20,000,000 are in displaced outside of Iraq and an additional 20,000,000 are displaced within Iraq's borders. So according to the BBC, 40,000,000 Iraqis, or in the neighborhood of 143% of all Iraqis have been displaced by the war. Wow, that's a lot. Oh, for the record, the population growth under Saddam Hussein averaged a touch under 3% a year so I would say that statistically there is not much difference. If I were you, I would query where the BBC got their numbers, mine came from the UN. Both the Madrid and London bombings were home grown affairs, meaning that London was bombed by British citizens and Madrid was bombed by Spanish citizens with international training provided. We were already engaged in assaulting the locations that housed the training facilities, so there would have been little value in any military action in those areas. Also, the planner of teh London bombing was arrested in Zambia and extridited to the UK for trial. Please note that we have not engaged in a total war since the 9/11 attacks, we have engaged in limited war, which even you seem to think is not a bad idea. And as a final note, I would indeed remove the hornet's nest so that my children and neighbors would not need to worry about being stung. I guess therereally are some fundamental differences between us, I think and act for the common good and you only worry about your immediate environment.
leatherneck2
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 132
I did not indicate that I proposed that we should take the annihilation route, I stated that we cannot affort to loose. This is a very different proposition, and the reason that I wish us to continue the fight for as long as they do. You see, in a fight there are two sides that each have a veto power over peace. As much as we wish to live in peace, if they don't we will need to fight. This is the reality that I do not think you grasp.  As far as why we are in Iraq, I have laid out why I felt the invasion was justified and do not feel the desire to rehash all that again. You were on those threads and can just as easily go back and read them. The point is not Iraq in any event, AS I KEEP SAYING. We (the non-Islamic world not just the US) are in a number of other locations globally being confronted with Wahabiist/Radical Islamist violence and trying to keep it at bay. Attempts to win their hearts and minds by demonstrating respect for their beliefs and allowing Sharia law to gain a legitimacy on a par with our secular laws has been interpreted as a sign of weakness.  Attempts to show that we are not a threat to them and that we seek common understanding have failed. I now see a very dark future where we either continue to defend ourselves or we surrender and become Islamic. My prayer is that they will tire before we do. For the sake of completeness and accuracy, we have been fighting Radical Islam since Caliph Uthman Ibn Affan launched invasions to expand Islam into East Asia, North Africa, Iberia, and Central Europe in the last half of the 7th century, over 300 years before Richard the Lionheart marched off to Jeruselam, which Uthman's predecessor conquered in 638 when it was in under the governing control of the Byzantine Empire. If you are going to include history, please use a full measure.  
shays
shays's picture

Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 968
Leatherneck ... I have already responded to the initial letter (and you chose not to address my interpretation or comments, which is fine by me) so I will not reiterate them here.  I do have a couple of specifics in your last message that I would like to address, however. The Radical Islamists are an adaptive and innovative enemy who engage in asymmetrical warfare. Total war in this case is a clear path to defeat, as total war rests on defeating an enemy state as opposed to a belief or movement. We are adapting our tactics to their actions as fast as they are adapting their action. I cannot say with certainty that we are winning, but I can certainly say that is is not clear that we are losing as the democratic institutions are taking hold, moderates in Iraq are gaining the trust and legitimacy that we want them to, commerce, education, and local self governance are increasing consistently, Al Qaeda in Iraq has ceased to be a significant entity, and finally Al Qaeda has shifted support to the Taliban movement in Afghanistan. The first half of your assertion is insightful, and I concur.  Unfortunately, "we" (despite massive citizen protest and well-articulated protest throughout the media and in Congress) chose to invade a sovereign state and replace the head of a nation who actually acted as a bulwark against theocratic rule (the goal of al-Qaida).  We have, theoretically, defeated that "enemy" state by executing its leader, but explanations for and rationalizations of the ways in which it advances our cause -- just or otherwise -- against radical Islam are conveniently avoided.  That is because our military presence in Iraq is a costly mistake (lives, property, infrastructure, money, and focus ... not to mention a big big hit on any positive public relations campaign we might wish to resuscitate). As to the success of the democratic institutions taking hold in Iraq, that really depends on what and who you read.  According to spokespersons for the administration, progress is being made.  However, the credibility of such sources must be deeply questioned and at the very least be viewed with skeptical glasses.  According to other sources, the provincial elections have been postponed from October to December because the four major interests in Iraq still cannot agree on structural issues -- most importantly, how different sections of the country are to be ruled, how representation is to be determined, and whether the nation will be partitioned or remain as a unified state.  Very few of the goals you identified (commerce, education and local government) have been successfully addressed; that is, the jury is still out.  The only "good" thing that has happened, as far as I can tell, is that ethnic cleansing has successfully segregated once fairly integrated communities, which accounts for a large part of the decline in sectarian violence that has very little to do with our escalation (euphemistically called "The Surge"). In terms of your final sentence, al-Qaeda has NEVER strayed from its support for and collaboration with the Taliban in Afghanistan.  "Al-Qaeda in Iraq", though it had actual members and conducted real operations, was about as real an al-Qaeda as the current bunch of American Minutemen are "real" patriots.  Al-Qaeda in Iraq didn't even exist until we overthrew Saddam and created conditions he would never tolerate that enabled a wannabe Islamicist to go public. If the cause of the hatred is, as you insist, US invasionist policies, then why does the hatred go back centuries before the US existed? I really would like an answer to this question. Also, please note that Radical Islamists are attacking the Russians in Chechnya and have been doing if for quite some time. Abu Sayef and the Moro National Liberation Front in the Philippines grew from a long line of Islamic separatist violence dating to before Spanish colonial period. Would you care to comment on that as well? Albanian Islamists had fomented religious and ethnic violence in Kosovo in the late 14th century and have continued the Jihad to the current time. The UCK (Ushtria Çlirimtare e Kosovës or Kosovo Liberation Army) has, as a point of their manifesto, the goal of uniting the Muslim populations in Kosovo, Macedonia, and Albania and to form a new Islamic Republic in the region. They have been heavily financed by Al Qaeda, European Islamic Charities, and the Revolutionary Council of Islamic Revolution of Iran. "Hatred" is a mixed bag.  Shi'a and Sunni have oscillated between collaboration and opposition ever since the death of Mohammad.  Relations with non-Arabs, and then -- once the Islamic world spread outside of Arabia to include hundreds of non-Arabic people -- with non-Muslims has also had a spotted history.  Those relations include spotty relations of Muslim with Muslim, as well.  Each of the struggles that you describe illustrates the point I made in my other post -- while there is some overlapping and common interests amongst radical Islamicists around the world, almost all such radical movements are nationalist in nature, and very limited in scope -- both in terms of perceived enemies and in terms of broad goals.  A "unified" radical Islamic caliphate may be a commonly expressed goal, but you can bet your sweet bippy that there is no agreement (and heated, if not violent opposition) about who should be the head of such a caliphate.  In short, radical Islam is like a hydra -- lots of tentacles all stemming from a common source, but all working for different (and sometimes cross) purposes.  In some ways, this makes it more formidable an enemy, because what works in one region of the world may no work so well in other parts. Diplomacy cannot work against an enemy that does not believe in diplomatic solutions. The goal of diplomacy is, and always has been, to find a mutually acceptable solution and frequently results in a compromise solution to the problem at hand. The Wahabiists/Radical Islamists will use diplomacy only to buy time to position themselves for the next assault. They are not interested in compromising because they see no win in a compromise solution, only a loss. They are willing to allow us the feel safe, as that is when we have historically let our guard down and made their attacks easier. Diplomacy also does not work against a loose coalition of non-state based extremists.  One can sit down with the head of a nation or even a political region and find pressure points and other bargaining chips to begin discussion.  This of course does not guarantee that discussion and negotiation will be successful (nothing can guarantee such success), but it does provide the basis around which talks may commence.  Guerillas don't have much to discuss.  A very good, and close to home model, would be the Apache.  We only subdued them after capturing all and incarcerating all (though they kept escaping and going back to their low-down, dirty border-crossing ways) ... and then waiting a couple of generations until all the fight had been taken out of them.  This may, indeed, be what we have to do to al-Qaeda and other radical groups around the world.  Clearly, though, such a goal is not a traditionally structured military operation ... it is primarily a police and investigation effort, supported by quick, surgical application of force. In the current fight, we cannot win unless we are willing to annihilate every last Wahabiist/Radical Islamist, which I do not believe we are willing to do. But we cannot afford to lose, as that would mean the destruction of the religious and political freedoms characterize the western world. What we can do is continue the fight, protect democratic movements, and support legitimate governance in every hostile theater until they get tired and give up or just run out of support. You asked for my vision, this is my sad prognostication, we will likely be fighting this enemy for the next hundred years or more and for my great grandchildren's sake, I hope that we never give up. Much of what you say I agree with, but there are a few false assumptions (currently, though they may prove true, ultimately).  Any threat of "destruction of the religious and political freedoms" you speak of is way down the line.  Because radical Islam is, as you say, a guerilla movement and not a state that musters armies and attack vehicles, the threat to western civilization is minimal.  There is no means for Osama bin Laden to conquer the U.S. or any European nation, for that matter.  There is no pressure that he can bring to bear that would cause a western state to "surrender" to his demands.  He can make our lives uncomfortable.  Our President's reaction (and inaction in the proper sphere) suggests a hint of how uncomfortable we can become  -- out of fear we may surrender the rights we take for granted.  But that is our problem, and how we deal with threats internally ... not a true external threat.  We have to find ways to balance our need for internal security without sacrificing those rights.  It can be done ... but not by using fear as the primary source for action.
leatherneck2
leatherneck2's picture

Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 132
I did not respond before because I did not see anything there that required a response. I thought that it was well thought out and presented. Just because I disagree with some of your statements and conclusions does not automatically trigger a response. We have, theoretically, defeated that "enemy" state by executing its leader, but explanations for and rationalizations of the ways in which it advances our cause -- just or otherwise -- against radical Islam are conveniently avoided. I won't split hairs here, but we did not try or execute Saddam Hussein. In fact we supported a different government than the one that did try and execute him. I am avoinding the discussion of Iraq in this post deliberately because it is not germane to the discussion that I was attempting to frame, in spite of Warhater's fervent efforts to drag it that way. As you know, I support the continued efforts in Iraq, as well as the efforts in the Philippines, Horn of Africa, Indonesia, Kazahkistan, Bosnia-Herzagovina, and everywhere else that we are engaged against the Wahabiists/Radical Islamists.  "Hatred" is a mixed bag.  Shi'a and Sunni have oscillated between collaboration and opposition ever since the death of Mohammad.  Relations with non-Arabs, and then -- once the Islamic world spread outside of Arabia to include hundreds of non-Arabic people -- with non-Muslims has also had a spotted history.  Those relations include spotty relations of Muslim with Muslim, as well.  Each of the struggles that you describe illustrates the point I made in my other post -- while there is some overlapping and common interests amongst radical Islamicists around the world, almost all such radical movements are nationalist in nature, and very limited in scope -- both in terms of perceived enemies and in terms of broad goals.  A "unified" radical Islamic caliphate may be a commonly expressed goal, but you can bet your sweet bippy that there is no agreement (and heated, if not violent opposition) about who should be the head of such a caliphate.  In short, radical Islam is like a hydra -- lots of tentacles all stemming from a common source, but all working for different (and sometimes cross) purposes.  In some ways, this makes it more formidable an enemy, because what works in one region of the world may no work so well in other parts. My point is that the basis for their hostility toward the western world has nothing to do with US policies adn is parralleled by their hostility toward non-muslims in Europe, Asia, Africa, and throughout the Pacific Ocean. There is no means for Osama bin Laden to conquer the U.S. or any European nation, for that matter.  There is no pressure that he can bring to bear that would cause a western state to "surrender" to his demands.  He can make our lives uncomfortable. I am not so sure of this particular statement, much of Europe is finding particular pressure of Radical Islamists seeking to change their traditions adn way of life. Remember the murders in the Netherlands and the rioting in France were committed by devout, second generation European Muslims who feel dispossessed by their government because their government has rejected Sharia law as equal to secular law. I have now come to view any concession to a particular religious viewpoint as a "surrender" of some point of autonomy and freedom. Our President's reaction (and inaction in the proper sphere) suggests a hint of how uncomfortable we can become  -- out of fear we may surrender the rights we take for granted.  But that is our problem, and how we deal with threats internally ... not a true external threat.  We have to find ways to balance our need for internal security without sacrificing those rights.  It can be done ... but not by using fear as the primary source for action. In your last sentence we are in complete agreement. Along the lines of what I stated above, any reduction of individual freedoms and rights is a small surrender of our culture and national identity. These need to be vigorously opposed and resisted by all legal means available, particularly by use of the ballot box. As for teh rest of your comments, I believe that we will again have to agree to disagree with respect to interpretation of the facts on the ground. As I stated, I cannot say that we are winning, but I do not believe that we are losing.
shays
shays's picture

Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 968
Thank you for your thoughtful response.  I appreciate trying to rise to the challenges you pose by asking very good questions and posing excellent points of contention.  I wish that we did not have to discuss Iraq in terms of the larger conflict against radical Islam.  However, whether we like it or not, we are engaged in Iraq because that adventure has been unnecessarily framed as a part of the larger war against terrorists -- and terrorists, everywhere, use our actions in Iraq as recruitment tools and as justification for their actions.   My point is that the basis for their hostility toward the western world has nothing to do with US policies adn is parralleled by their hostility toward non-muslims in Europe, Asia, Africa, and throughout the Pacific Ocean. And your point is well-taken.  My point is related, because the history of Islam has been punctuated by radical and sometimes rapid shifts in perspective regarding relationships with non-Muslims (much as our history has been punctuated with similar shifts regarding the acceptability of or threat posed by immigrants to our country).  Hostility towards the western world has roots that go back to the 11th century, and the cause for that hostility in turn has its roots in the migration of peoples within the region(s) controlled by Islam and changes of the power structure in contact with the west at that time.  Yes, there are extremists with extreme views ... but they are not the voice of Islam, nor do they currently control too many state apparati (though the Taliban struggle to regain the power we stripped from them). I am not so sure of this particular statement [the statement being a point that Osama bin Laden does not possess the means to conquer the U.S. or Europe], much of Europe is finding particular pressure of Radical Islamists seeking to change their traditions adn way of life. Remember the murders in the Netherlands and the rioting in France were committed by devout, second generation European Muslims who feel dispossessed by their government because their government has rejected Sharia law as equal to secular law. I have now come to view any concession to a particular religious viewpoint as a "surrender" of some point of autonomy and freedom. Yes ... riots and murders and individual acts of terror (Madrid, London) make life uncomfortable.  Notice, however, that neither Spain nor the UK went off and declared war against anyone in order to bring the perpetrators to justice.  Good old fashioned police work and investigation brought the culprits to justice.  That said, those inconveniences and despicable acts did not bring either Spain or the UK to their knees.  There is no caliph ruling in Madrid or London.  I do not see that being the case in the forseeable future, either.  In short, we are not fighting an enemy that seeks military victory.  They want us to leave, and they want their own state governments to stop tolerating western help, western association, and western customs and culture.  They think they can resist change and a changing world by turning their back on technological progress (except for cell phones, computers, modern explosives, etc), cooperation, and cultural exchange.  They are wrong, of course, but it's going to take more than big armies to get them to change their minds. Besides the ballot box, I think it is time that Americans once again take part in the electoral process.  Instead of whining and complaining about the lack of ideas or the dearth of leadership from which to choose, instead of sitting on our keisters and not doing anything until the day of the election (thinking perhaps that casting a ballot "fixes" things, if we think at all, or even bother to cast that ballot), instead of gossiping and spreading false rumors to smear the character of opposing candidates ... it is time for Americans to get out and do something.  Run for office, knock on doors or make phone calls, engage people in (hopefully) intelligent conversation.  Democracy does not work so well when people sit around and let others do the thinking and decision-making. Tag, you're it!  
leatherneck2
leatherneck2's picture

Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 132
According to the BBC there are approximately 4.5 million displaced Iraqis, of which approximately 2 million have left the country. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7303519.stm In March 2003, there were approximately 2 million exiled Iraqis residing in the west and another 1.5 million residing in Iran. The Iranian exiles have all returned, along with many of the exiles and emegrees to western countries.  It appears to me that you do not check your sources very closely. Perhaps you need to read more.
warhater
warhater's picture

Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 222
Dam Leatherneck what does your BBC article have to do with what we are talking about? Are you asserting that a few success stories make up the whole of our success within the chaos of military invasion?   You gave a rather thought out and concise view of Middle Eastern history concerning Islamic infights with Islamic fundamentalism and its warlike attitudes toward both the West and the East i.e. everyone should tow their mark of Islam and no other.   What you have not succeeded in showing is where it is relevant within the midst of an occupational military and how that by our presence we are not distorting the issue of Islamic terror by making them rise to the occasion because of our being there. 
leatherneck2
leatherneck2's picture

Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 132
The relevance of the BBC article was that I tried to validate your claim that the BBC stated that there were 20 million externally displaced Iraqis and 20 million internally displaced Iraqis. You made a clear statement that you received that information from the BBC. Therefore, I went to your identified source to determine where thay may have obtained their numbers and found that they claimed an order of magnitude less that the numbers that you cite. For accuracy I placed the link to the article that contained the numbers. What you have not succeeded in showing is where it is relevant within the midst of an occupational military and how that by our presence we are not distorting the issue of Islamic terror by making them rise to the occasion because of our being there.  How about the fact that the local Iraqi sheiks and tribal leaders are actively taking a role in the eradication and dislocation of Al Qaeda in Iraq, or the fact that the terrorist threat in Iraq is coming from "foreign fighters" and not from internal elements. Perhaps we should note that Muqtada Al Sadr has once again sought refuge in Iran. Appearantly Islamic terror in on the wane in Iraq so one might suppose that we are in fact not "making them rise to the occasion because of our being there."

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