Posted on Wed, 05/21/2008 - 19:01 — by Bodozer
Last year I said the O-line coached by Tom Cable and co. would cut the QB sacks in half last year. It almost happened I missed it by a couple a few. Now it's not the Colt kinda O-line but 43 sacks from 72 was a nice jump backwards. Now we have a few more new players on the O-line that I dont know too much about, but If Tom Cable can do to this group what it did for last years group, then hopefully we could be even more improved. I just hope some of these guys that we drafted take control over some of these older players that we just signed...particularly Henderson, McQuistan, and possibly Morris at Center. I want to see at least three young draftees play and gel together for awhile. I know the best ones will play and I'm all for that, I'm just hoping it's these 3 that do some damage in training camp. Wade and Harris will i'm sure get more of a chance then the rest to succeed despite Kiffin's announcement that all will be given equal and fair time to prove their worth. Whatever works I'm good with it. I just want J-Russ up right. Now as for D-Line I am also going to predict a doosy... and again when it happens, of course I'll be a genious as usual. This year I say the D-line will be the most improved....so you say that couldn't possibly be much of a prediction since we were at the bottom of every category. Well then I say Terd Sands will be the beast that Al thought he would be when he gave him that contract extension a couple years ago. Ok ok maybe not a beast, but the most improved player on the D-line and a solid run defender this year. I read where he was dealing with 2 deaths in his family going into camp last year....now I'm not usually one to make excuses for people, but some people dont handle stuff like that so well, especially if it at all takes away from his off season training program, they said he was out of shape. Now if thats the only thing I can hope for than so be it. I'm rooting for the guy and all other Raider fans should also, we need him to step up. Clemons is gone so I hope Richardson can continue to excel in year two. That would be Burgess, Sands, Kelly, and Richardon as the starting four, with fresh bodies of Warren maybe Spires but I doubt it...., Joseph, doubt it...., Edwards, doubt it...Hopefully one of these guys step up and become the player that they either could have been or once was. As for the one D-line draftee Trevor Scott, I think he will stick, he seems to have speed and a high energy motor, along with great size and a solid looking frame...it seems he's a work out freak which shows professionalism. He could be this years Oren Oneil.
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 13
I like your thoughts dozer. The O-line got better as the year went on and the biggest weakness I saw was the lack of physicalness against top notch D-lines. Maybe Harris can fix that because he is much bigger then Sims and was as rugged run blocker in SF. He has to improve his pass protection and that is the key.
Totally agree with you take on Terd. I busted on him as much as any Raider last year and he deserved it, but I also know about his situation. The entire Nation should be rooting for him.
Bodies on the D-line, depth is key. DE - Burgess, Spires, Edwards, JRich, Scott. DT - Kelly, Terd, Warren, Joseph and maybe a surprising rookie FA. Rotate, keep them fresh and hopefully Burg regains is 05-06 form. There are guys who can play so improvement is possible.
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 84
jjvill.........I know that Jason Taylor's salary is high this year but wouldn't he be a nice addition to the Raiders D-Line, WOW!! I think Al is feeling his mortality...thats why I think he's spent so much money this off season.. What's another 10 million or so a year? LOL Spend it Al. Go for it all. Truthfully... I wouldn't put it past him to at least try. I just hope we can get a run stopper out of this group, or maybe somewhere else.
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 35
Salary cap, Salary cap, Salary cap!
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 124
Bo dozer knows football!
I do recall your prediction. I thought then that it was a bit over optimistic then. I also recall my prediction was that we would cut the number of QB sacks by at least 30. we actually dropped it by 31 from 72 to 41. That does not do justice to the progress that was made by the offense with respect to sacks.
If you look at 2006 games 1-8 ratio of sacks to pass attempts (42-201) and project that out using the league median number of passes per game, 33, then you get an incredible projection of 110 sacks. The league record is79. That was iwith Walsh at the helm. As you recall Shoop took over before game 12. His numbers (17-150) projected to a 60 sack season.
In the first half of 2007 the line on Cable's line (24-192) projects out to a 66 sack season. That is not very good. The encouraging thing though was that the second half numbers (17-257) project to a 35 sack season. 35 sacks is still mediocre but that is certainly good enough for a QB to show what he can do.
In 2008 the anticipated changes in personnel (Harris at LT & Wade at C) are unlikely to have a significant impact on our sack totals. Just as in 2006 and 2007 the biggest impact will come from elsewhere; Bush and McFadden. A significant portion of our sacks come from blitzes. In 2006 and 2007 we seemed unable to make teams pay for blitzing us. One reason we blitz so little is that it increases the probability of a big play for the offense. When teams blitz against us there has been almost no risk of giving up a big play. That should change with the additions of Bush and McFadden. Both backs can catch and will be dangerous when teams blitz. Unlike the immediate past there is going to be a real risk to blitzing us and I would expect that the increased risk will result in a reduced number of blitzes which will be the most significant factor reducing our sack rate in 2008.
I'm looking forward to Sept. 28, our first game with the blitz happy Chargers.
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 84
Right on GAS, thanks for the stats. Yeah I also think that the system coupled with McFadden, Miller, Bush, and Fargas..the teams on our schedule will have a tough time blitzing with the weapons we now have. Thanks for pointing that out. Looks like Gas knows football. I'm actually thinking we can win the division and shock teams this year. it's not out of the question. We have alot of talent on this team...I just hope this Kiffin / Godfather issue is not a distraction. Later Dude "I'm Still In" and this new forum still sucks!!!!
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 79
Good morning Bodozer, Gasbag and everyone else: While the "sacks" did drop significantly there are a couple of other contributing reasons besides the play of the O=line!!
First lets start with the "mobility" of the QBs!! Both McCown, c-pep, and even Jamarcus are definately more MOBILE than Walter and Brooks were in 2006. Of course old Collins in 2005.
so yes the mobility of last years QBs helped to reduce the sacks too. Also the play calling. How many straight "drop back" pass plays called vs a roll out pass play.
IMO the "overall" play from the O-line, QBs and play calling all contributed to the reduction of sacks. Now this year if they can get that number down to about 2 sacks per game or less, (32 or less for the season) we will see some good games.
Of course the Defense will improve more if the offense can just SCORE points. Meaning when a team falls behind and has to relie on the passing game to try to keep up, (abandon the run) then the "run stastistic looks good"!! It's agreed that the D-line can and should be better this year. Hopefully the Offense wont put the Defense in bad situation with a "short field" by turn overs or penalties. Of course Barry is gone, that should reduce the "false start penalties" by about 90% LOL!!
Regards to all
Dave
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 35
Of the QB's with tenure on this team Tui is the most mobile. JR and AW, IMO, are about the same regarding mobility. They are even more similar in height, not weight and arm strength. I read a number of clips this weekend where they criticized Walter's mobility and maybe rightfully so if you look at what happened when he played. His style of play is so close to JR's he should be the logical backup.